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OCTOBER 21,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:53 P.M. ET:

MAKE SURE TO REGISTER! – FROM COLLEGE FIX:   A coalition of Pennsylvania college student leaders will be participating in this year’s Bridging the Gap Student Leadership Conference at Muhlenberg College next weekend.  Based on the conference theme of “This is Equity: Belonging, Unpacking and Claiming,” you just might be able to guess what’s in store, too. You got it: understanding and challenging “dominant systems of oppression” and exploring “intersectionality and identity development.”  And that’s not all. According to the Lehigh Valley Association of Independent Colleges (whose Coalition of Diversity Administrators is sponsoring the event) attendees also will “explore individuals’ concept of self advocacy [and] political power.”  Please let us know how the conference changes you.  (That is a joke.)

INTRIGUING – FROM POWERLINE:   Judicial Watch has filed a complaint with the Board of Professional Responsibility of the District of Columbia Court of Appeals against Christine Blasey Ford’s lawyers, Debra Katz, Lisa Banks, and Michael Bromwich. The complaint is based on the alleged failure of these lawyers to inform their client that Chairman Grassley offered to fly female staff investigators to meet Dr. Ford in California to obtain her testimony.  Rule 1.4(a) of the District of Columbia Rules of Professional Conduct requires: “A lawyer shall keep a client reasonably informed about the status of a matter and promptly comply with reasonable requests for information.” Rule 1.4(b) requires: “A lawyer shall explain a matter to the extent reasonably necessary to permit the client to make informed decisions regarding the representation.”  While this complaint may not go far, considering the politics of the situation, it does address the issue of whether Professor Ford was manipulated by political interests who saw her as a useful tool.  Haven't heard a word about Ford since the hearings.

EVERYTHING IS BIG IN TEXAS – FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER:   More than 100,000 requests have been made for tickets to President Trump's rally in Texas on Monday, his re-election campaign says.  To accommodate the sheer magnitude of interest, the Trump campaign announced in a statement Sunday that it will hold a "Big Texas Tailgater" at the site of Trump's "Make America Great Again" rally at the Toyota Center in Houston.  “Texas is big, and so will be the turnout for our MAGA rally in Houston, Texas Monday,” said Michael Glassner, chief operating officer of Donald J, Trump for President, Inc. “That’s why we’ve organized the Donald Trump–Big Texas Tailgater outside the Toyota Center. We’ll have great food, live music, big screens, and a great time for all of our guests. Inside and out, the excitement at this Trump rally will be as big as Texas — it’s going to be epic."  Yup.  Huge rally tomorrow night.  I hope Fox carries it live.  The president still draws the biggest crowds of any political figure in recent memory.

October 21, 2018     Permalink

OH DEAR, CALL OUT THE SHRINKS FOR THE DEMS – AT 1:56 P.M. ET:  This may be a certified emergency.  It is covered by Obamacare.  Turns out that Trump's approval rating has now surpassed that of Barack (come to save us) Obama, at this stage of their presidencies.  From The Hill, with apparent shock and dismay: 

President Trump’s approval rating before the November elections has jumped to a higher level than former President Obama's ahead of the 2010 midterms, according to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. 

The poll found Trump's approval rating at its highest level for that poll yet, at 47 percent. Obama's approval rating was 45 percent around the same time in 2010, according to a similar NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken in late October 2010.

Obama's approval rating was reaching a record low in October 2010, just before his party lost a significant number of seats in the House and Senate. 

Trump is a historically unpopular president among the general U.S. population, but consistently retains extremely high levels of Republican support. Recent polls have put him at around a 90 percent approval rating among Republicans. 

Many see the midterm elections as a referendum on the current president. 

Republicans and Democrats are facing a particularly tough election year, with vulnerable Democratic senators seeking to retain their seats in states Trump won by double digits in 2016 as Republicans deal with widespread Trump disapproval among suburban women and other groups. 

The new NBC/WSJ poll found voters more energized than they have been for years, with 72 percent of Democrats telling pollsters they are very interested in the upcoming election as 68 percent of Republicans said the same.

“Midterms are about mobilization, and we are headed into the stretch run with unprecedented enthusiasm among both parties,” Democratic pollster Fred Yang told NBC.

COMMENT:  Republicans generally have a higher turnout.  They have a greater tendency to vote.  We hope that tradition holds this year.

I love that sentence, "Trump is a historically unpopular president among the general U.S. population, but consistently retains extremely high levels of Republican support."  I guess Republicans aren't part of the general U.S. population.

October 21, 2018       Permalink

ANYTHING HAPPENING? – AT 12:38 P.M. ET:  Yeah, well, they're all out campaigning.  Tuesday will mark two weeks until election day, so panic is starting to set in.  Nobody in the political world is interested in much else.  World War III could break out, and the political class would ask only how it affects the 8th District in Minnesota. 

Some latest:  In both Missouri and Arizona, there are delightful little signs that the forces of good are starting to edge ahead in Senate races.   Today's report has Hawley one point ahead of McCaskill in Missouri, and yesterday's report had McSally two points ahead of the evil Sinema in Arizona.  These are tiny leads, well inside the margin of error, but I'd rather be ahead than behind. 

By contrast, there is bad Senate news from Florida.  I hope this is thoroughly inaccurate, but a new CNN poll out today has incumbent Dem Bill Nelson five points ahead of terrific Governor Rick Scott.  The most recent poll had Scott two points ahead, in a much larger sample. 

In the immortal words of William Goldman's assessment of Hollywood:  "Nobody knows anything. "  This midterm will be a good test of polling, as turnout is expected to be much higher, on both sides, than it usually is.

Rasmussen has an interesting take on the generic ballot:   

With just a little over two weeks left until Election Day, the battle for control of Congress looks closer to us than it does for a lot of other pollsters.

The Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot remains in a near tie after the Democrats’ longtime lead vanished following the Kavanaugh confirmation controversy.

Republicans are madder about the Kavanaugh thing than Democrats are and more determined to vote in the upcoming elections because of it.Will they still feel that way a couple weeks from now?

Most voters think Democrats are likely to take charge of the House of Representatives following next month’s elections but expect them to fall short of capturing the Senate.

Just before the 2014 midterm elections, 62% of voters said a GOP takeover of the Senate was likely, but only 34% thought Democrats would win control of the House. Republicans gained seats in both chambers to take full control of the Congress.

COMMENT:  I think it's fascinating for Rasmussen to observe that it is an outlier in the generic ballot polls.  If they turn out to be right, they go into the Pollster Hall of Fame, which is located in the basement of a bar near the US Capitol in Washington.  If they're wrong, we will gladly forgive.

October 21,  2018     Permalink

OCTOBER 20,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET:  

MOB RULE AT THE UN – FROM FOX:  U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley is demanding the U.N. Secretary General take action against the Bolivian and Cuban delegations after they disrupted a U.S. event to draw attention to the plight of political prisoners in Cuba -- damaging U.N. property in the process.
The event on Tuesday, “Jailed for What? The plight of Cuba’s political prisoners,” which took place in the U.N.’s Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) chamber, descended into chaos when diplomats from the two countries -- including Bolivian Ambassador Sacha Llorenti -- started banging on tables and screaming slogans in an effort to derail the event. Speakers, including former prisoners and relatives of those currently imprisoned under the communist regime, struggled to be heard over the noise.  In a letter to Secretary General Antonio Guterres, sent Friday and obtained by Fox News, Haley said the behavior by the Cuban and Bolivian diplomats was “outrageous” and called for action from Guterres.  I guess the little thugs at the UN are gaining inspiration from the streets of America.  By the way, Bolivia is turning into a little Cuba, Castro style.  Very little reporting on that.

JUVENILE DELINQUENCY – FROM FOX:   A small group of angry diners confronted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell at a restaurant Friday night, but were met with calls from other customers to leave the Kentucky Republican alone.  Video obtained by TMZ shows at least one diner berating McConnell on issues such as Social Security at a restaurant in Louisville. The video starts with him yelling at McConnell and arguing with Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao -- to whom McConnell is married. The outlet reported that four men first confronted McConnell.  “Oh yeh, why don’t you get out of here? Why don’t you leave our entire country,” the protester tells the couple.  As Chao argues with the protester, McConnell appears unperturbed and sips on a drink. But other diners begin yelling at the protester, telling him to “leave him alone” and making shoo-ing gestures..."The Leader and Sec. Chao enjoyed their meal in Louisville last night and they appreciate those who spoke up against incivility," McConnell spokesman David Popp said in a statement. "They hope other patrons weren't too inconvenienced by left-wing tantrums. As the Leader often says, the Senate will not be intimidated by the antics of far-left protestors."  I'm sure Mitch won't press charges against these disruptive clowns, but someone else should.  We are risking a tragedy by allowing angry mobs to surround public officials.

THE GENIUS SPEAKS AGAIN – FROM DAILYWIRE:   Democratic Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said on Friday at a campaign event that the United States' blueprint for beating global warming needs to be the same as the blueprint the U.S. used for defeating Nazi Germany in the 1940s.  "So we talk about existential threats, the last time we had a really major existential threat to this country was around World War II," Ocasio-Cortez said. "And so we've been here before and we have a blueprint of doing this before."
"None of these things are new ideas," Ocasio-Cortez continued. "What we had was an existential threat in the context of a war. We had a direct existential threat with another nation, this time it was Nazi Germany, and axis, who explicitly made the United States as an enemy, as an enemy."  "And what we did was that we chose to mobilize our entire economy and industrialized our entire economy and we put hundreds of thousands if not millions of people to work in defending our shores and defending this country," she stated. "We have to do the same thing in order to get us to 100% renewable energy, and that's just the truth of it."  Well, I'd certainly follow her lead, wouldn't you?  I'm glad she knows that the existential threat of Nazism occurred "around World War II."  I'm glad she's heard of World War II.  Ask her about World War VIII.  I'm sure she'll tell you who won.

October 20, 2018       Permalink

POLLS, WITH CAUTION – AT 12:55 P.M. ET:   We've cautioned that state polls are "iffy," especially in midterm elections where so much rests on turnout.   With that said, here is a brief summary of some of the most important Senate races:

Arizona – Almost a deadlock between American heroine Martha McSally and hardline leftist Kyrsten Sinema, the un-McSally.  Hard to believe that Arizona would elect a leftist, but it could happen.  However, late polls see a small surge for Martha. 

Texas – It's estimated that Ted Cruz is about six points ahead of glamorous, and empty-headed, rival Robert Francis O'Rourke, who calls himself Beto to sound Hispanic.  Cruz should be the natural winner in Texas, but Beto is loaded with vast sums of out-of-state money, and Cruz must campaign like crazy in the next two weeks, and get his people to the polls.

Tennessee – One late poll shows Dem former governor Phil Bredesen up slightly over Marsha Blackburn, but other polls show Republican Blackburn with a respectable lead.  The smart money is on Blackburn, but the smart money is often dumb.

Nevada – A very serious chance of losing the Republican seat held by Dean Heller.  Dem candidate Jacky Rosen is close, or even leading, in a state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

(Those four seats are held by Republicans.  If all or some flip Democratic, it will be a near-catastrophe for the GOP, but may not cost the Republicans the Senate because other seats will flip Republican.)

Florida – Excellent Republic Governor Rick Scott is running neck-and-neck with incumbent Dem Senator Bill Nelson, although the newest poll shows Scott up by two.  Again, turnout, turnout, turnout.  Chance here for a GOP pickup.

Missouri – Liberal-pretending-to-be-centrist Senator Claire McCaskill is battling Republican Josh Hawley.  This should have been an easy pickup for the GOP, but for some reason it isn't.  It's a toss-up, although those on the ground are saying there's a bit of momentum behind Hawley.

Indiana – Dem incumbent Joe Donnelly has maintained a small lead over GOP candidate Mike Braun.  The Dems have great voting power in the northeast section of the state, near Chicago, where there are many voters, living and dead. This one may not work out for us.

Montana – The president has visited Montana several times during this campaign, and is out there today, trying to unseat Dem Senator Jon Tester with GOP stalwart Matt Rosendale.  The race is a toss-up, but Tester has consistently maintained a small lead.

North Dakota – Heidi Heitkamp, the Dem senator, is toast.  Kevin Cramer will be a Republican pick-up, unless something goes seriously wrong.

COMMENT:  Very close races, no guarantees, impossible to predict turnout.  Most "experts" see a Republican Senate, with possibly one to three GOP pickups.  I'll believe it when I see it.  And I want to see it.

October 20, 2018       Permalink

CONSPIRACY THEORY, OR THE TRUTH? – AT 12:18 P.M. ET:   A "caravan" (I love the propaganda name) of "migrants" (again) is heading north through Mexico, trying to reach the United States.  Thousands of people are involved.  They are "escaping" oppression, they say. 

Odd, how this is happening just before a major American election.  Even more odd, take a look at the TV pictures of them.  So many seem well dressed in informal, but neat, clean, and pressed clothes.  Hmm.  How can that be?

President Trump is suggesting that there's a big cash supply behind this "caravan."  (Start a contest in your household to guess which other labels CNN and the others will soon apply.  Maybe "freedom march," or "the right to migrate" march.  Or "future Americans" march.  Be creative.)  Is the president right?  From Breitbart: 

President Donald Trump suggested Thursday that someone was paying migrants in the caravan traveling to the United States from Honduras.

“We’re starting to find out, and I won’t say 100 percent, I’ll put a little tiny question mark at the end … but a lot of money has been passing through people to come up and try to get to the border by election day,” Trump said during a campaign rally in Montana.

The group of over 4,000 migrants is currently traveling through Guatemala, although the president did not cite evidence on Thursday to back his claim that some of them could be paid.

The president said the caravan would be stopped before they reached the border, mocking Democrats for trying to influence the immigration issue.

“They wanted that caravan, and there are those who say that caravan didn’t just happen,” Trump said.

He told supporters the Mexican government would “hopefully” stop the caravan before it reached their own Southern border.

If Mexico failed, he reassured the crowd, he would send the military to the Southern border.

He ripped Democrats for favoring illegal immigration, accusing them of wanting to import more voters into the United States.

“Hey, they’re not so stupid when you think about it,” he said. “But they are crazy.”

COMMENT:  I don't have answers.  I have no proof.  But this sudden march is no coincidence.  What the left wants, and what the "news" outlets will be happy to give them, are pictures of "dreamers" approaching our border, then trying to run across, and stopped by "Trump's troops." 

Anyone disagree?

October 20,  2018     Permalink